How Often Does the Best Chess Player Win?

In this weeks installment of Matt solves a riddle with a simulation, we have the ridder express question from fivethirtyeight.  In a chess match, 12 games are played and the first player to 6.5 points wins.  You get 1 point for a win, 0.5 points for a draw, and 0 for a loss.  It’s very possible that the best player loses a chess match with this scoring system and only twelve games.  It’s more than football, baseball, or basketball, but is 12 games enough to decide?  Furthermore, how many games would be required to determine the winner 90% or 99% of the time.

Continue reading “How Often Does the Best Chess Player Win?”